China Weekly Box Office (3/8 - 14): 10 straight weeks at No. 1 for Avatar

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar（阿凡达）	32m ($4.69m)	+39.1%	3,791	601,956	1.285b ($188.23m)
2. Sherlock Holmes（大侦探福尔摩斯）	18m ($2.64m)	+5.9%	16,098	565,859	65m ($9.52m)
3. Big Soldiers（大兵小将）	13.6m ($1.99m)	+4.6%	14,675	458,530	148.6m ($21.77m)
4. 7th Grade Civil Servant（特工强档）	9.7m ($1.42m)	+321.7%	14,354	336,338	12.0m ($1.76m)
5. Hot Summer Days（全城热恋）	7.0m ($1.03m)	-26.3%	8,865	220,889	126.5m ($18.53m)
6. Back in Time（古墓迷途）	5.7m ($0.84m)	+338.5%	8,103	198,467	7.0m ($1.03m)
7. Ne te retourne pas（不要回头）	5.7m ($0.84m)	+338.5%	8,384	191,211	7.0m ($1.03m)
8. Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief（波希杰克逊与神火之盗）	5.6m ($0.82m)	New	3,229	172,786	5.6m ($0.82m)
9. K-20:Legend of the Mask（变相黑侠）	5.0m ($0.73m)	New	5,691	164,907	5.0m ($0.73m)
10. Kandidaten（迷魂陷阱）	3.0m ($0.44m)	New	3,500	99,206	3.0m ($0.44m)
11. 14 Blades（锦衣卫）	2.5m ($0.37m)	-50%			144.5m ($21.17m)

(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146505)

Top Box Office Runs of 2000s (Overview)

With Avatar ending the decade on an extremely high note and carrying the momentum all the way through the first part of 2010, it seems appropriate to take a pause and look back at some of the most extraordinary box office runs of the last 10 years (there have been some excellent discussions going on at World of KJ forum). Before I reveal my top 10 choices, let's start with some basic data on the decade's box office. Even though the importance of foreign markets has surged in recent years, I will focus on the U.S. domestic performances first as it allows a more consistent analysis with a single release for each film and no exchange rate fluctuation on the currency.

Breakdown by Gross
Total Gross	# of Films
$700m+	1
$500-700m	1
$400-500m	4
$300-400m	17
$200-300m	46
$100-200m	177

Breakdown by Years
Year	$100m+	$200m+	$300m+	$400m+	$500m+	$700m+
2000	22	3	0	0	0	0
2001	20	6	2	0	0	0
2002	24	7	3	1	0	0
2003	29	6	3	0	0	0
2004	24	6	3	1	0	0
2005	19	8	1	0	0	0
2006	19	6	1	1	0	0
2007	28	11	4	0	0	0
2008	29	6	3	1	1	0
2009	32	10	3	2	1	1

In the course of next couple of weeks, I will list 10 films which I consider had the most impressive box office performances of 2000s (again domestic only), along with a couple of runner-ups. Discussions and rebuttals are certainly welcome. :)

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 12 - 14)

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. Alice in Wonderland	60.0	-48.3%
2. Green Zone	17.5	$5,830 PTA
3. She's Out of My League	12.0	$4,060 PTA
4. Remember Me	11.0	$4,970 PTA
5. Our Family Wedding	9.0	$5,610 PTA
6. Shutter Island	7.9	-40.3%
7. Cop Out	4.9	-47.3%
8. Brooklyn's Finest	6.0	-55.1%
9. Avatar	5.5	-32.3%
10. The Crazies	3.5	-50.6%

Alice in Wonderland shocked many with its gigantic $116.1m opening, but what surprised me the most is its internal multiplier. Even though I am fortunate to be among the few who foresaw its $100m potential, my daily breakdown was more along the line of 39-36-25. Given that we are still in March, I thought it could achieve a small Friday-to-Saturday increase without counting the midnight gross, but certainly did not expect a bump even when it is included. Considering the film earned around $5m during midnight, the real Saturday increase was in fact over 20%, and the overall IM for the weekend would be 3.1, an excellent figure for a Tim Burton film. Furthermore, with an A- from CinemaScore and A- at Yahoo, the word-of-mouth also does not appear to be as mediocre or divided as initially anticipated. Then there is the 3D/IMAX factor, which has shown to help stabilize a film's descent at the box office. The only 3D releases to drop over 50% on its second weekend so far are a R-rated horror film (My Bloody Valentine) and two concert movies (Jonas Brothers and Hannah Montana). With a $6.77m Wednesday, it needs 150% Wed-to-Fri jump and 3.6 IM to avoid a 50% drop. By comparison, Monsters vs. Aliens had 192% and 3.7 respectively, so it is definitely achievable. When all said and done, look for Alice to have a hold right around what Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (-49.7%) and Corpse Bride (-47.6%) experienced.

China Weekly Box Office (3/1 - 7): the weakest frame of the year by far

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar（阿凡达）	23m ($3.37m)	-60.3%	8,500	385,582	1.253b ($183.54m)
2. Sherlock Holmes（大侦探福尔摩斯）	17m ($2.49m)	-43.3%	18,487	548,741	47m ($6.89m)
3. Big Soldiers（大兵小将）	13m ($1.90m)	-66.7%	16,810	431,750	135m ($19.77m)
4. Hot Summer Days（全城热恋）	9.5m ($1.39m)	-66.1%	12,314	299,779	119.5m ($17.50m)
5. 14 Blades（锦衣卫）	5m ($0.73m)	-66.7%	7,653	159,337	142m ($20.80m)
6. All's Well Ends Well 2010（花田喜事2010）	3.2m ($0.47m)	-73.3%	6,135	108,474	58.0m ($8.50m)
7. 72 Tenants of Prosperity（72家租客）	3.1m ($0.45m)	-68.0%	3,725	103,058	33.1m ($4.85m)
8. 7th Grade Civil Servant（特工强档）	2.3m ($0.34m)	New	1,613	19,784	2.3m ($0.34m)
9. True Legend（苏乞儿）	?
10. Back in Time（古墓迷途）	1.3m ($0.19m)	New	1,528	35,842	1.3m ($0.19m)

(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146503)

Oscar Winners Predictions

Might as well:

Best Picture - The Hurt Locker
Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress - Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Original Screenplay - Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay - Up in the Air
Best Editing - The Hurt Locker
Best Cinematography - The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction - Avatar
Best Costume Design - Bright Star
Best Makeup - Star Trek
Best Visual Effects - Avatar
Best Sound - The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing - Avatar
Best Original Score - Avatar
Best Original Song - "The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart
Best Animated Feature - Up
Best Foreign Language Picture - A Prophet
Best Documentary - The Cove
Best Documentary Short - China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
Best Animated Short - A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Live Action Short - Miracle Fish

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 5 - 7): Alice poised to shatter the March opening record

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. Alice in Wonderland	100.0	$26,820 PTA
2. Shutter Island	13.0	-42.6%
3. Cop Out	8.8	-51.7%
4. Brooklyn's Finest	8.0	$4,130 PTA
5. The Crazies	7.5	-53.3%
6. Avatar	6.5	-52.4%
7. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief	5.0	-47.8%
8. Valentine's Day	4.3	-52.5%
9. Dear John	2.5	-48.0%
10. Crazy Heart	2.0	-18.7%

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory is obviously the most relevant comparison for Alice in Wonderland, as it represents director Tim Burton's previous collaboration with Johnny Depp to bestow his own fingerprint on a classic fairy tale. Here is the comparison of their respective Box Office Mojo poll numbers:

China Weekly Box Office (2/22 - 28): The post-holiday week

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar（阿凡达）	58m ($8.50m)	-40.8%	13,747	995,024	1.23b ($180.17m)
2. Big Soldiers（大兵小将）	39m ($5.71m)	-41.8%	27,129	1,239,275	122m ($17.87m)
3. Sherlock Holmes（大侦探福尔摩斯）	30m ($4.40m)	New	16,580	949,066	30m ($4.40m)
4. Hot Summer Days（全城热恋）	28m ($4.10m)	-42.9%	20,898	858,632	110m ($16.11m)
5. 14 Blades（锦衣卫）	15m ($2.20m)	-46.4%	13,420	472,143	137m ($20.07m)
6. All's Well Ends Well 2010（花田喜事2010）	12m ($1.76m)	-52.0%	11,515	408,580	54.8m ($8.03m)
7. 72 Tenants of Prosperity（72家租客）	9.7m ($1.42m)	-35.3%	6,463	326,269	30.0m ($4.39m)
8. True Legend（苏乞儿）	7m ($1.03m)	-59.8%	8,411	223,428	46.9m ($6.87m)
9. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2（喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威）	4.7m ($0.69m)	-72.3%	7,843	176,957	125m ($18.3m)
10. Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard（亚瑟和他的迷你王国2）	1.05m ($0.15m)	-69.1%	2,509	40,824	4.45m ($0.65m)

(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146503)

A few notables:

1. Avatar led for the 8th straight week and upped its record-setting admissions count to 24,347,117.

2. Two more local films, Big Soldiers and Hot Summer Days, joined the 100m yuan club.

3. Sherlock Holmes had an average opening and will be struggling to make 100m yuan.

4. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2 finished its run with 125m yuan, a 50% increase from its predecessor.

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 26 - 28)

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. Shutter Island	20.0	-51.3%
2. Cop Out	18.0	$5,710 PTA
3. The Crazies	14.0	$5,650 PTA
4. Avatar	13.0	-20.0%
5. Valentine's Day	9.0	-46.0%
6. Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief	9.0	-41.0%
7. The Wolfman	4.8	-51.5%
8. Dear John	4.6	-35.5%
9. Tooth Fairy	3.0	-31.0%
10. Crazy Heart	2.4	-18.9%

China Weekly Box Office (2/15 - 21)

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar（阿凡达）	98m ($14.35m)	+18.1%	14,531	1,689,655	1.172b ($171.67m)
2. Big Soldiers（大兵小将）	67m ($9.81m)	+318.8%	26,176	1,914,286	83m ($12.16m)
3. Hot Summer Days（全城热恋）	49m ($7.18m)	+48.5%	23,548	1,412,900	82m ($12.01m)
4. 14 Blades（锦衣卫）	28m ($4.10m)	-24.3%	16,415	875,000	122m ($17.87m)
5. All's Well Ends Well 2010（花田喜事2010）	25m ($3.66m)	+40.4%	13,517	833,333	42.8m ($6.27m)
6. True Legend（苏乞儿）	17.4m ($2.55m)	-22.7%	14,635	527,272	39.9m ($5.84m)
7. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2（喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威）	17m ($2.49m)	-	13,303	607,142	120m ($17.58m)
8. 72 Tenants of Prosperity（72家租客）	15m ($2.20m)	+183.0%	6,839	454,545	20.3m ($2.97m)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel（鼠来宝2明星俱乐部）	3.5m ($0.51m)	-25.5%	3,723	129,630	8.2m ($1.20m)
10. Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard（亚瑟和他的迷你王国2）	3.4m ($0.50m)	New	5,342	113,333	3.4m ($0.50m)

(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.146477)

Avatar admissions: 23,352,093

China Weekly Box Office (2/8 - 14)

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. Avatar（阿凡达）	83m ($12.15m)	-30.8%	15,463	1,410,125	1.074b ($157.32m)
2. 14 Blades（锦衣卫）	37m ($5.42m)	-35.1%	24,280	1,114,122	94m ($13.77m)
3. Hot Summer Days（全城热恋）	33m ($4.83m)	New	14,006	874,867	33m ($4.83m)
4. True Legend（苏乞儿）	22.5m ($3.29m)	New	17,013	658,472	22.5m ($3.29m)
5. All's Well Ends Well 2010（花田喜事2010）	17.8m ($2.61m)	New	10,357	560,629	17.8m ($2.61m)
6. Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2（喜羊羊与灰太狼之虎虎生威）	17m ($2.49m)	-58.5%	15,378	567,802	103m ($15.09m)
7. Big Soldiers（大兵小将）	16m ($2.34m)	New	4,466	391,581	16m ($2.34m)
8. 72 Tenants of Prosperity（72家租客）	5.3m ($0.78m)	New	3,735	149,759	5.3m ($0.78m)
9. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel（鼠来宝2明星俱乐部）	4.8m ($0.70m)	New	7,596	173,160	4.8m ($0.70m)

(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1464)

Avatar admissions: 21,662,438