| Movie | Predicted Gross (m) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol | 31.5 | +6.8% |
| 2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows | 23.0 | +13.5% |
| 3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked | 18.5 | +47.0% |
| 4. War Horse | 15.5 | +106.2% |
| 5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | 15.0 | +17.6% |
| 6. We Bought a Zoo | 13.0 | +38.9% |
| 7. The Adventure of Tintin | 11.5 | +18.5% |
| 8. New Year's Eve | 6.5 | +96.4% |
| 9. The Darkest Hour | 4.1 | +36.7% |
| 10. The Muppets | 2.9 | +35.2% |
In 2005, every film in the top 18 saw an increase of at least 14.6% this weekend from the Christmas frame. We could expect similar scenario to play out this year, although the degree of increase could be a bit lower for some due to how strong the Christmas Day business was. A few films I would particularly keep my eyes on are Mission: Impossible 4, War Horse, and New Year's Eve. M:I4 has enjoyed outstanding dailies so far, and if it could achieve a 10%+ increase this weekend, it will then have the stamina to make a run at $230m+ total. War Horse, on the other hand, has been relatively frontloaded so far, dropping three days in a row after its strong debut. It reminds me of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, another Christmas Day release for an Oscar contender from a renowned director where the opening day ended up being the best day of its entire run. At least War Horse, in only 2,376 theaters currently, has some room for expansion to lessen the level of frondloadedness. As for New Year's Eve, it will be interesting to see how big a bump it could get on Saturday.
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