Friday, January 6, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 6 - 8): The Devil Inside, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Devil Inside20.0$8,753 PTA
2. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol18.0-38.8%
3. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows12.0-42.5%
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo11.0-25.8%
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked10.0-38.9%
6. War Horse9.0-37.6%
7. We Bought a Zoo9.0-32.0%
8. The Adventure of Tintin8.0-30.0%
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy4.0$4,944 PTA
10. New Year's Eve3.0-52.6%


The signs are excellent for The Devil Inside everywhere one looks: Major Theater Chain's tracking came in way higher than ReelSource's, $17m vs. $5m; it has averaged 40,000 tweets a day this week; the unaided awareness is at 10% overall, which is very positive in itself and blows all other January releases away (albeit those films will see their numbers improve as we move closer); and for the actual sales figure, the film was leading Fandango's hottest tickets list with 31% on Thursday noon, over existing strong online sellers such as Mission: Impossible 4, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and War Horse. Even with a relatively smaller theater count of 2,285, $20m looks quite possible for it.

Despite being consistently shunned by critics awards (still a mystery given how well it is reviewed by the critics) and industry guilds so far, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has produced one of the best runs of the year for films in limited release, grossing $4.5m in 4 weeks while not in more than 57 theaters. The question now is if it can hold up its PTA with this aggressive expansion. $5K average would be a reasonable goal for the film.

4 comments:

  1. Great analysis as usual. I pretty much agree on all points. I wouldn't even be too shocked to see TDI hit $24-25m, but that's based more on past January horror performances and I doubt the market is strong enough in a post-holiday climate to get it that high. My $22m could even be a little optimistic, but the marketing campaign has been solid and I've heard some chatter about the trailer several times over the holiday season.

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  2. I see all the time references to "MTC" and "RS" and "The rule". To what those stand for? I'm new at all this and I recognice BO, BOM... and others. But not those two. Thanks!

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  3. Hi, thanks for visiting the site. MTC stands for Major Theater Chain, and RS for ReelSource, and they are two of the main tracking services that release their weekend projections for the openers based on their survey result. Unfortunately they don't have a site where all the historical numbers are kept, so you would have to visit forums such as one from worldofkj.com or boxofficetheory.com to check on the thread where such data is maintained.

    The MTC/RS "rule" refers to the phenomenon observed over time where if MTC number is significantly lower than RS', the actual weekend figure will end up being even lower than MTC's, and if MTC number came in significantly higher than RS', the actual weekend figure will end up being even stronger than MTC's. It's a totally random observation, but has been remarkably accurate.

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  4. Thanks! For both the explanation and your site! ;)
    Greetings from spain.

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