Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 27 - 29): The Grey, Man on a Ledge, One for the Money

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. The Grey	13.5	$4,239 PTA
2. Man on a Ledge	10.5	$3,502 PTA
3. One for the Money	10.0	$3,654 PTA
4. Underworld Awakening	10.0	-60.5%
5. Red Tails	10.0	-46.8%
6. Contraband	7.5	-37.7%
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	7.0	-30.3%
8. Beauty and the Beast	5.5	-37.4%
9. The Descendants	4.5	+89.7%
10. Haywire	4.5	-46.7%
-. The Artist	3.3	+39.1%

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Always fun to do this exercise each year. :)  

Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Moneyball

(War Horse will be next on the list, but with snubs from DGA/WGA/ASC/ADG guilds and a lack of showing in important categories at BAFTA, its chance at BP is very much on thin ice; then there are Bridesmaids and The Ides of March, but I don't see enough No. 1 votes for either; the lack of guilds has practically killed The Tree of Life, Drive, and Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, although the last two did get some much-needed help from BAFTA towards the end.)  

Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
3. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
5. David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  

Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
4. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

(I'm pulling hard for Rooney Mara to make it, and academy has favored younger actresses for this category in the past.)

Best Actor
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
4. Michael Fassbender, Shame
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

(Fassbender, IMO, gave the best performance of the year, so hopefully he won't get snubbed.)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Jessica Chastain, The Help
3. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
4. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
5. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

(BAFTA nominated Bejo in the lead category, so we could see her miss due to category confusion.)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
3. Nick Nolte, Warrior
4. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
5. Albert Brooks, Drive

(Brooks is vulnerable after missing both SAG and BAFTA; among the four acting categories this year, this is the most unpredictable one for nominations but also the most predictable for the winner, as Plummer will finally win an Oscar.)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Margin Call
4. Bridsmaids
5. A Separation

(Going for a surprise here with A Separation instead of Win Win or 50/50.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
5. The Ides of March

Best Foreign Language Film
1. A Separation, Iran
2. Pina, Germany
3. In Darkness, Poland
4. Footnote, Israel
5. Monsieur Lazhar, Canada

Best Documentary Feature
1. Project Nim
2. Pina
3. The Loving Story
4. We Were Here
5. Semper Fi: Always Faithful

Best Animated Feature
1. Rango
2. The Adventures of Tintin
3. Arthur Christmas
4. Puss in Boots
5. Chico and Rita

Best Cinematography
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. The Tree of Life

Best Editing
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Drive

Best Art Direction
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. War Horse

Best Costume Design
1. Hugo
2. My Week with Marilyn
3. The Artist
4. Jane Eyre
5. The Help

Best Makeup
1. The Iron Lady
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
3. The Artist

Best Visual Effects
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
3. Hugo
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Best Original Score
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. War Horse
5. The Help

Best Original Song
1. "Life's a Happy Song," The Muppets
2. "Pictures in my Head," The Muppets
3. "The Living Proof," The Help
4. "Lay Your Head Down," Albert Nobbs
5. "Hello Hello," Gnomeo & Juliet

Best Sound Mixing
1. Hugo
2. Super 8
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
4. Moneyball
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Hugo
3. Hanna
4. Super 8
5. War Horse

Best Documentary Short
1. Incident in New Baghdad
2. Witness
3. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
4. In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypts Unfinished Revolution
5. Pipe Dreams

Best Live Action Short
1. The Road Home
2. Raju
3. Pentecost
4. Sailcloth
5. Time Freak

Best Animated Short
1. La Luna
2. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
3. Wild Life
4. Magic Piano
5. Luminaris

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 20 - 22): Underworld Awakening, Red Tails, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Haywire

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. Underworld Awakening	23.0	$7,472 PTA
2. Red Tails	18.5	$7,365 PTA
3. Beauty and the Beast	11.5	-35.2%
4. Contraband	11.0	-54.8%
5. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	10.0	$3,802 PTA
6. Joyful Noise	6.7	-40.3%
7. Haywire	6.5	$2,665 PTA
8. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol	6.0	-48.7%
9. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows	4.5	-47.6%
10. The Iron Lady	4.5	-16.9%

Note: due to the start of an exciting new chapter in my personal life, I will likely be cutting down the time spent on box office analysis, although I will remain committed in providing my weekly predictions regardless how little time I may find in studying for them.

China Weekly Box Office (1/9 - 1/15): Sherlock Holmes 2 entered the market

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. The Great Magician（大魔术师）	74.6m ($11.81m)	New	44,867	2,185,120	74.6m ($11.81m)
2. Mission Incredible: Adventures On The Dragon's Trail（喜羊羊与灰太狼之开心闯龙年）	73m ($11.56m)	New	51,947	2,434,956	73m ($11.56m)
3. You Are the Apple of My Eye（那些年，我们一起追的女孩）	35m ($5.54m)	+29.6%	47,397	1,084,598	62m ($9.83m)
4. The Flowers of War（金陵十三钗）	29m ($4.59m)	-61.8%	30,729	717,716	592.5m ($93.50m)
5. Flying Swords of Dragon Gate 3D（龙门飞甲）	27.7m ($4.38m)	-61.8%	29,479	641,203	536.7m ($84.69m)
6. The Monkey King 3D（大闹天宫3D）	18.6m ($2.94m)	New	20,644	538,350	18.6m ($2.94m)
7. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows（大侦探福尔摩斯2：诡影游戏）	18m ($2.85m) (opened on Sun)	New	8,817	536,512	18m ($2.85m)
8. Dear Enemy（亲密敌人）	5.8m ($0.92m)	-74.8%	10,535	175,544	111.8m ($17.68m)
9. The Oxford Murders（深度谜案）	2.48m ($0.39m)	-75.2%	4,891	75,038	18.58m ($2.95m)
10. The Killer Who Never Kills（杀手欧阳盆栽）	2.22m ($0.35m)	-34.7%	7,457	74,000	5.62m ($0.89m)

(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1583)

MLK Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 13 - 16): Contraband, Beauty and the Beast, Joyful Noise

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. Contraband	22.0	$7,684 PTA
2. Beauty and the Beast	19.0	$7,238 PTA
3. Joyful Noise	18.0	$6,581 PTA
4. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol	15.0	-24.5%
5. The Devil Inside	11.0	-67.4%
6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows	10.0	-27.0%
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	9.0	-20.8%
8. War Horse	7.0	-19.3%
9. We Bought a Zoo	6.0	-27.8%
10. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked	6.0	-36.8%

China Weekly Box Office (1/2 - 1/8)

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. The Flowers of War（金陵十三钗）	76m ($12.07m)	-43.7%	63,270	1,839,303	563.5m ($88.91m)
2. Flying Swords of Dragon Gate 3D（龙门飞甲）	72.5m ($11.51m)	-39.1%	60,244	1,655,180	509m ($80.31m)
3. You Are the Apple of My Eye（那些年，我们一起追的女孩）	27m ($4.29m)	New	28,934	809,595	27m ($4.29m)
4. Dear Enemy（亲密敌人）	23m ($3.65m)	-43.9%	30,798	670,358	106m ($16.76m)
5. The Oxford Murders（深度谜案）	10m ($1.59m)	+63.9%	11,764	307,881	16.1m ($2.56m)
6. Speed Angels（极速天使）	8.1m ($1.29m)	-47.7%	18,615	248,237	23.6m ($3.74m)
7. Dream House（梦宅诡影）	7.2m ($1.14m)	-21.7%	14,815	217,719	16.4m ($2.60m)
8. The Allure of Tears（倾城之泪）	5.1m ($0.81m)	-62.5%	13,155	154,639	42.7m ($6.74m)
9. The Killer Who Never Kills（杀手欧阳盆栽）	3.4m ($0.54m)	New	9,518	106,951	3.4m ($0.54m)
10. My Best Bodyguard（玩命阻击）	3.16m ($0.50m)	-24.8%	10,156	101,509	7.36m ($1.16m)

(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

China Weekly Box Office (12/26 - 1/1)

Movie	Weekly Gross (yuan/dollar)	Change	# of showings	admissions	Total (yuan/dollar)
1. The Flowers of War（金陵十三钗）	135m ($21.36m)	-33.3%	72,129	3,342,411	487.5m ($76.84m)
2. Flying Swords of Dragon Gate 3D（龙门飞甲）	119m ($18.83m)	-32.0%	66,033	2,746,999	436.5m ($68.80m)
3. Dear Enemy（亲密敌人）	41m ($6.49m)	-2.4%	26,552	1,232,711	83m ($13.11m)
4. Speed Angels（极速天使）	15.5m ($2.45m)	New	18,657	483,317	15.5m ($2.45m)
5. The Allure of Tears（倾城之泪）	13.6m ($2.15m)	-43.3%	27,400	429,428	37.6m ($5.93m)
6. Dream House（梦宅诡影）	9.2m ($1.46m)	New	12,527	286,783	9.2m ($1.46m)
7. The Oxford Murders（深度谜案）	6.1m ($0.97m)	New	5,920	192,125	6.1m ($0.97m)
8. My Best Bodyguard（玩命阻击）	4.2m ($0.66m)	New	7,287	138,067	4.2m ($0.66m)
9. Love Shock（2012来了）	1.1m ($0.17m)	New	2,334	38,777	1.1m ($0.17m)
10. The Treaty of Double Bed（双人床条约）	0.92m ($0.15m)	New	3,282	31,571	0.92m ($0.15m)

(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1582)

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 6 - 8): The Devil Inside, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Movie	Predicted Gross (m)	Change
1. The Devil Inside	20.0	$8,753 PTA
2. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol	18.0	-38.8%
3. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows	12.0	-42.5%
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	11.0	-25.8%
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked	10.0	-38.9%
6. War Horse	9.0	-37.6%
7. We Bought a Zoo	9.0	-32.0%
8. The Adventure of Tintin	8.0	-30.0%
9. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy	4.0	$4,944 PTA
10. New Year's Eve	3.0	-52.6%

The signs are excellent for The Devil Inside everywhere one looks: Major Theater Chain's tracking came in way higher than ReelSource's, $17m vs. $5m; it has averaged 40,000 tweets a day this week; the unaided awareness is at 10% overall, which is very positive in itself and blows all other January releases away (albeit those films will see their numbers improve as we move closer); and for the actual sales figure, the film was leading Fandango's hottest tickets list with 31% on Thursday noon, over existing strong online sellers such as Mission: Impossible 4, Sherlock Holmes 2, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and War Horse. Even with a relatively smaller theater count of 2,285, $20m looks quite possible for it.

Despite being consistently shunned by critics awards (still a mystery given how well it is reviewed by the critics) and industry guilds so far, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy has produced one of the best runs of the year for films in limited release, grossing $4.5m in 4 weeks while not in more than 57 theaters. The question now is if it can hold up its PTA with this aggressive expansion. $5K average would be a reasonable goal for the film.

Thanks to WOKJ, Box Office Derby is Back

A couple of months ago, Box Office Mojo made the unfortunate decision of shutting down their very popular Derby game, where users could show their box office knowledge and skills by predicting each weekend's top 10 films.  I participated in it for more than 7 years, and having that taken away from you in an instant, even though we were not competing for any actual prize, was a very saddening experience.  The great news is that another site which believes in such a game, a site that gave me the first opportunity to write formal box office analysis articles and one that I am proud to remain part of, decided to take upon the task of re-creating the game.  Given the amount of work they needed to do, it is pretty amazing they got everything ready to officially launch the new Box Office Derby at the start of 2012, with more features and charts as well.  If you had formerly played in Box Office Mojo's version, or if you are simply interested in box office predictions and discussions, I would highly recommend you to participate and play.

The predictions for Jan 6 - 8 are now open: 
http://www.worldofkj.com/derby_predict.php